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A Predictable Pattern of Return Continuation in Equities

Friday Jul 02, 6:19AM

Steven L. Heston
University of Maryland - Department of Finance

Robert A. Korajczyk
Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management

Ronnie Sadka
Boston College - Carroll School of Management

Lewis D. Thorson
University of Washington - Foster School of Business

Abstract

Over the post-decimalization period, we find a predictable pattern of return continuation in equities. Stocks whose relative returns are high in a given half-hour interval today tend to exhibit similar outperformance in the same half-hour period on subsequent days. The effect is stronger at the beginning and end of the trading day, but exists throughout the day. Percentage changes in trading volume exhibit a similar pattern, but do not explain the return pattern. These results suggest that strategically shifting the timing of trades can significantly reduce execution costs for institutional traders.

Download the Paper from SSRN

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